Unit 2, Section 2: How Likely Is It?
Instructional Days: 7
Enduring Understandings
Probability measures the long run frequency of occurrence for chance outcomes. Probabilities can be approximated by designing and conducting simulations, and also via mathematical calculation.
Engagement
Students will watch a scene from the movie Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead and discuss the likelihood of getting “heads” when tossing a coin 78 times in a row. The scene can be found at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbInZ5oJ0bc
Learning Objectives
Statistical/Mathematical:
S-CP 2: Understand that two events A and B are independent if the probability of A and B occurring together is the product of their probabilities, and use this characterization to determine if they are independent.
S-CP 9: (+) Use permutations to perform [informal] inference. *This standard will be addressed in the context of data science.
S-IC 6: Evaluate reports based on data.
Data Science:
Understand how algorithms are used to design simulations.
Applied Computational Thinking using RStudio:
• Design and conduct simulations in RStudio.
• Compare actual data to simulated data using RStudio.
• Re-randomization of permuted data.
• Use estimated probabilities from samples to determine theoretical probabilities.
Real-World Connections:
Learn to use simulations to determine expectations of events.
Language Objectives
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Students will construct summary statements about their understanding of probability.
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Students will use a Venn Diagram to compare and contrast compound events and their probabilities.
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Students will engage in group presentations to express their understanding of simulations to assess probabilities.
Data File or Data Collection Method
Data Files:
Simulated data in RStudio.
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